How Bad Will Brexit Really Be?

We've been fed all kinds of doomsayer predictions but all in all UK Inc has performed pretty well.
So what does this really mean for Post-Brexit?

Video Transcription:

Hi guys. So how bad will things be after Brexit? Now, assuming obviously Brexit happens, which there's no guarantees that that will be the case. I just thought I'd have a look because I think one of the key points that I find when we talk about Brexit is since day dot there's been, and in fact, not even day dot, even before the doomsayers were basically saying how bad everything was and how it will be terrible and this would happen and that would happened. And look make no mistake things have been bloody bad. There's no doubt about it, but very few things have happened that experts said would happen. 

In other words, the pound will plummet. Now, has the pound plummeted? Yeah, it has. Absolutely. But it's plummeted, not plummeted. It's actually dropped over a long period of time. So there was an initial drop, yes. And then pretty much it stayed pretty stable and then when we realised that politicians are bloody idiots and that, it dropped again and dropped further. But, at the end of the day, realistically it hasn't plummeted to the point where, it is unaffordable.

One of the things I believe too is that actually the devaluation of the pound will actually play into our favour if we have a global recession in the not too distant future, which, mid 2021, so that's my prediction anyway, that's aside from this, you can watch one of the other videos to see what I mean by that.

But the interesting thing I find is that most of the predictions, London losing its predominance as the predominant financial era hasn't come to play and it looks like it's not going to come to play.

Yes, we've lost some head offices and things like that. But actually if you look at the head offices, we've lost too, the majority of those haven't gone overseas. They've gone to Birmingham and Manchester. Why? Because it's my belief now that we used to, 2012, 2014, we pretty much had one global city, which was London. Now we have three, which is Manchester and Birmingham and really that just shows you what the positive effects have been happening.

Now the challenge I see with the whole of the UK is that it really is a two tier country now because basically you've got London, Manchester, Birmingham, possibly a bit of Leeds and Liverpool, but they are, I guess the next tier down. And apart from that, there's not a lot going on in a lot of other places. Now that's going to be quite- Yeah, I'm going to cop it sweet aren't I for saying that?

But realistically the funding in those areas has not been great. Yes, you've got HS2 areas and things like that. But for me it's those three places, maybe Liverpool and Leeds that are still getting a bit more attention, a bit more investment. But the dropping of London as the center isn't really happening.

And in actual fact living in Singapore and traveling to Hong Kong and Malaysia and that, people still want to send their kids to London to get school. So it's still very much an option and it hasn't lost its gleam, from just Brexit happening or not happening or stringing out or that. So I don't think London is going to lose, I think the pound, yes. But the pound might bounce backs if we don't have Brexit.

But also if Brexit happens and we actually start signing trade deals and getting things sorted, will we? Well that's anyone's guess, and really that is a throw that roll the dice and I don't think anyone can know what's going to happen there.

But look, bottom line is neither of those have really come to thing. It hasn't plummeted to the point where things are unaffordable. Inflation was going to go through the roof. Inflation hasn't gone through the roof, so there's one thing after another where the experts have predicted this to happen and it doesn't really happen or it happens over a really long drawn out period. So its effect, isn't felt as bad as a 30% drop in the pound in one day and it stays down. That we haven't really seen that dramatic boom or 100,000 jobs are taken away from London.

In actual fact, London, if anything, what happened in the last recession is the financial capital of London, which we were at Alliance on finances. Now we've got a massively thriving tech industry there and startup culture and to some degree it's almost bloody impressive what London has done.

And this is why, I talk about London post-Brexit going the Singapore style. Well, if they can do that, that'd be bloody fantastic. Can they do that? Do I feel like they can really do that? I'm not the one to say. I don't think they can, but I hope they will.

And so what other predictions. I mean, interest rates are going to go up. They haven't gone up and they're unlikely to go up. And normally what would happen is if you go into a recession, things are slowing down with trade wars and all sorts of things.

What you're going to have is you're going to have the interest rates going up. Well they haven't, they've stayed low and normally you would drop them lower. Well they can't really go much lower than this, so yeah. And if anything Europe has got the upper hand on us, well Germany's in recession right now. So at the end of day, we haven't been into recession. We've actually been performing pretty bloody well. We come out in the best perspective and we've pretty much kept that.

So I think the bottom line is whatever happens, whether we Brexit or don't Brexit, I don't think it's going to be as bad as the experts make out, which is a good news for most people. Now, that doesn't mean there's not going be just some disruption, things like that. But I think most people are aware of that and prepared for that.

And I hope you're prepared for that. Yeah. For me it's much more, the focus is on the global recession that is overdue and arguably hasn't been solved since the last recession. The issues that were there are still here now and they haven't really been addressed. They've just been band-aid and just put fingers in the back of the water to stop the water coming out. But the reality is the holes are, and the pressure is coming, building up again.

But anyway, guys, have a great day. Live with passion. See you later.

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About the author

brettalegrewood

Brett has over 20 years experience in all facets of property, he owns various companies centred around property and is the driving force behind the education and training at Ezytrac. His companies have sold over £850 million in UK and London property and he manages over 1200 properties through his estate agency chain. Today he shares his time between UK, Australia and Singapore. He is married to Arlene and together they have 4 kids. Brett holds both the Level 3 Property Mark Qualifications for Property Sales and Property Lettings and Management.


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