3 Biggest Trends in 2019

Video Transcription:

The three biggest trends for the back end of 2019. So I think the first thing is Brexit. And I think that, and I'll be a bit different, I'll say it a bit different than what most people and most of the media is saying. The first thing is Brexit. Whether Brexit happens or doesn't happen, it doesn't really matter. I mean it does matter and, let's not get into a Brexit chat, but I'm talking about the trends here that we're going to see. Irrespective of Brexit or not, okay, what we will see is that the property market is still there. Things are still going up, things are still transacting, albeit a lesser amount. But interested thing what Brexit has done, which is actually going to prove to be really, really good for us in the UK, is that what it's done is rather than have this massive growth and then this drop, we've actually curved it off like this.

So what we're finding and what we're going to find is that actually house prices, whatever happens with Brexit, won't drop as far, if we do go into a global recession, which I think is probably 2021. So we're still a year or a bit in the way, maybe even a bit longer depending on what governments do. And depending on what that madman Trump does and his twin brother, Boris, if he stays in. Who knows. I'm not going to predict that one.

But the point with Brexit is this. A lot of the damage is already done and I know people are, the doomsayers and the news and media is making it sound really bad, but the reality is, a lot of that damage is already done and accounted for. Okay. So, if you take out the white noise of that, what you're going to find very quickly is the property markets are operating as normal, albeit at a lesser level, which is keeping the prices oppressed.

And the thing is, once we get clarity about Brexit, because we've had this period of slow to no growth, what's going to actually happen is we're going to have this boom and prices are going to up. Now, you can sit there and say, "No, they're going to drop 30% and things are going to be terrible and I'll wait until then." But you know what? You're probably the same person that had been saying that for the last 10 years. Okay. So now actually, if you get in with the fundamentals, and this is the key, okay. Don't buy crap. Okay. So Brexit is happening and to be fair, whether Brexit happens or not, it doesn't matter. Okay. The fact is, the property market fundamentals are there. We need more houses. We're not building enough houses. The reality is developers are still building houses and they will continue to build houses, and whether we have a drop off in pricing, which if Brexit happens or doesn't happen, that will happen if we go into recession. Okay. The house price drops. But it doesn't matter. It's not a longterm thing. If you're buying in areas that have fundamentals.

So places like London. Interestingly, London's starting to look a little bit cheaper now. Same with commuter towns. I mean, we've now moved back into selling London property and selling commuter towns. You're going to see, Southall, you'll see Luton, you're going to see all these sort of places in and around London because the prices there are looking fairly competitive to say the Manchesters and Birminghams and places like that, which is still fantastic fundamentals, but they've had a good run of growth. So if you're getting into those places, great for long term, okay, but short term you're probably not going to see big, big increases in pricing. So Brexit is the first thing and the impact of that, irrespective of whether it happens or not, it doesn't matter. Buy with fundamentals. Shops, schools, transport links, major employers, major investment. Go after that and you can't go wrong.

So the second one is, the interesting thing with the second one is, is the trend is to move the cycle has been going on. Forget the white noise in the background, forget all the news media, the normal property cycle has been happening. So. I mentioned before, I think potentially we go into a global recession because we've got trade wars and all this sort of stuff. We've had a pretty good trot, okay, since the last recession happened and really, it's overdue. But why hasn't it happened? Why hasn't it happened every 10 years as it kind of used to? Well, quite simply because governments have been pumping money into the economy. Now, interesting, the euro's just started pumping money in again, which for me things are starting to slow down globally.

Part of that is because Trump is having his little tariff hissy fit and obviously with the Chinese economy, things are slowing down. It's grown tremendously and there's still a lot of growth to happen in that. I was just looking at stats from the aviation industry. It's like, there're five billion... I've forgotten the number, what it was for. Anyway, five billion, but they're expecting in the next 15 years to go to 15 billion. Yeah. So it's basically tripling the size of the aviation industry. Might've been trillion. So it's a massive, massive growth and that will continue. Okay. But it won't continue at the same rate as it did previously, okay. But that's fine. That's absolutely fine.

Now, I mentioned before the trend. Basically the great thing for us is that because we've had this cooling off since Brexit, where everything's been subdued, there's likely to be a bounce. And when we do hit, and this is the trend, when we do hit the recession, we will be much better prepared because we haven't had this massive growth. Whereas places like Australia and the US, that have had quite good growth, potentially are going to have the downturn a lot more severe than we have. So I think that's where it'll really play into investor's arms.

I think the third trend is, we're going to start to see the regulations slow down a bit. I mean, we had some massive regulation changes where it's just incredible what's been happening. So a lot of the stuff that's coming out now, I don't think you're going to see much more. I mean, there's only so much you can tighten before you have to start loosening again. And they're going to start realising that they've tightened too much and they need to actually loosen it a bit to get funds flowing, especially if the recession happens. Because if a recession happens, the great thing about London and the great thing about places with good fundamentals is, there'll be an inflow of capital from overseas because London is a safe haven. So, I mean, London fundamentals haven't changed. Brexit, no Brexit, it's still a world city.

The interesting thing that we're finding, or we've found now, is that London or UK doesn't just have one world city, it used to be London, now it actually has three world cities. Okay. So we're adding to the list, Manchester and Birmingham. And you know what? Liverpool isn't too far behind that. I mean, interestingly, one of the things I joke about, but it's a serious joke, is that if it's a world renowned football team, that's generally a good place to invest.

Don't take that as gospel because it's not exactly gospel, but it is fairly accurate. You've got the Man United, you've got Liverpool, you've got the London teams. I mean, the football has gone out to the world and is known and so those places are great places to invest because of the fundamentals, because of the universities that attract international students now. I mean, the world has changed in the last 20 years in that it used to be, if I traveled the world and I went to a particular country, Hungary, yeah, I just made that up. But basically Hungary. Went to Hungary. I probably didn't see too many Chinese or Asian faces. Now as I travel the world, I see Asians and I see Indians. Now, what has that done? And this is not a racist comment. This is purely a statistical demographical statement, which is that, because they've been raised from the third world, second world to becoming much more first world, they're traveling the world. So they have a third of the world's population, basically a third, a third and a third, you know, if you like. And so you're seeing that spread out now.

Now that means that people are sending their kids to university. So we're seeing a lot more international students. That's great because that has regenerated a lot of the places. I mean, you got to Manchester now, the university sort of area and that sort of thing, it's amazing what happens now. It's same with the Australia, is another place. The US is another place. These places where they have universities, and the great thing is, UK is a hotbed for education, particularly university education. And so if you can get somewhere that has a recognised university, the beautiful thing is, it's not just the major cities that have those universities.

I mean, we've got an office in Lincoln. And Lincoln, it's amazing how it's transformed. For better and for worse, because actually what it's done with the international students, they come in and they actually get subsidised housing, so they can afford to take out the really luxury type property. But what that's meant is that actually they don't look after the place. It's created these student halls in luxury property that would have normally been taken out by the locals. Sure it's driven up rent, sure you can look at that aspect. Is it good or is it bad, you know? But I guess in summary, and I think right now there's a lot of background noise, and if you listen to that background noise and you focus on that background noise, what you're going to get is very confused and very procrastinated, not making a decision, and thinking that there's nowhere for go.

One of the things I love, and you know I track the IT and the technology, and the FinTech and the Prop Tech and all this sort of industry. But if you look now, and you look at how many unicorns. Now, what is a unicorn? It's a privately held company that's worth a billion pounds or more. And you look at the evolution from the days of Dropboxes and the early unicorns, through to now, there is literally hundreds of unicorns being added. So there's on the one hand the news media telling us how bad things are and how it's all terrible, and the other side, which is actually that things are bloody good right now.

We live in the best time. We're talking about almost becoming cyborgs, where we're going to get a chip implanted in our head and we'll be able to listen to the internet straight from that. And all this stuff is possible. Now I'm not saying do it, I'm not saying it's going to happen straight away, but the reality is all of this is possible. And I think when you start looking at the positivity, you actually get a much better view of life. And actually my recommendation is, don't read the newspapers. Go out and write. Watch this TEDx. Watch TEDx. What's these sort of things where they're looking at how we're pushing the edges of that. Now one of the keys, and for me this is my game, which is... I'd love to be on the cutting edge of all this technology, and creating rocket ships and all that sort of stuff, and being Elon Musk. That'd be fantastic, but really that's not my calling.

My calling, for me, is much more about helping you guys get a base level of financial freedom, so you can do the things that you want to do. And that's pretty much what I love doing. That's what drives me, and I'm passionate about. Yes, I love reading about all these wonderful technology stories and things like that. But in actual fact, it's the basic, basic stuff that takes someone from being an employee or an employer, and taking them from that, where they're ruled by money and ruled by the job, the constraints of the job, to the point where they're actually ruled by what do they want from their lives. And I think that's one of the key things. And I think more and more, the billionaires right now at talking about the changes that are happening and we're starting to see them, things like automatic cars and things like the share economy and all this sort of stuff. It really is a great time to be alive and, and we need to take advantage of that.

But in order to take advantage of that we have to get our base set. And our base set is property, and actually having an asset base that earns us capital, and earns us income. And that is where we can help. And that's where, if you want to give the team a call, have a chat to them and really get a sense for what's possible right now, despite all the Brexit's and regulation changes and all the BS. I was going to say the wrong word there. All the BS that is out there.

All right, so guys, look, that's the major trends. For me, Brexit, whether it happens or happens, it doesn't matter. You're going to have the recession, but we're better placed for the recession. And the regulation, it will start to stop, and things will start to loosen off and get better. All right. So, with those things in mind, I think we're really well placed, and you're really well placed to take advantage of it.

Give the team a call, and I look forward to chatting real soon. See you later.

About the author

brettalegrewood

Brett has over 20 years experience in all facets of property, he owns various companies centred around property and is the driving force behind the education and training at Ezytrac. His companies have sold over £850 million in UK and London property and he manages over 1200 properties through his estate agency chain. Today he shares his time between UK, Australia and Singapore. He is married to Arlene and together they have 4 kids. Brett holds both the Level 3 Property Mark Qualifications for Property Sales and Property Lettings and Management.


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